Mitchell Trubisky TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Trubisky

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:29 AM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Trubisky TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 6th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.4% red zone pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mitchell Trubisky has attempted just 1.3 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile among quarterbacks.
Mitchell Trubisky has been among the worst TD passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrible 0.00 per game while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.