Mitchell Trubisky Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Trubisky

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Trubisky Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-106/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Trubisky to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (12.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played).
The New York Jets defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 4.94 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

Mitchell Trubisky has averaged a measly 0.9 carries per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest rates in the league among QBs (8th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Mitchell Trubisky has averaged a mere 7.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in football among QBs (24th percentile).
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.