Mitchell Trubisky Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Trubisky

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Trubisky Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-747).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +403 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +370.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Trubisky to be a much bigger part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (16.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
Mitchell Trubisky has run for 0.17 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among quarterbacks (83rd percentile).
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive ends profile as the 9th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 6th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 39.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.