Miles Sanders Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
This year, the weak Colts run defense has given up a whopping 127.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-worst in the NFL.
The Colts safeties project as the 28th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
The model projects Miles Sanders to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack this week (18.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.6% in games he has played).
Miles Sanders has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (74.0).
Miles Sanders's 2.9 adjusted yards per carry this year shows a noteworthy diminishment in his running skills over last year's 4.8 rate.

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