Miles Sanders Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Panthers as the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.9% run rate.
The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Miles Sanders to accumulate 17.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Miles Sanders has been a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this season (64.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (50.6%).
The Panthers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.

Favors Under

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Miles Sanders's ground effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a mere 3.16 yards-per-carry vs a 4.84 rate last season.
Miles Sanders has been among the bottom running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.22 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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