Miles Sanders Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Miles Sanders Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to total 17.2 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Miles Sanders has generated 71.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (95th percentile).

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Miles Sanders's rushing efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a measly 3.25 yards-per-carry vs a 4.84 rate last year.
Miles Sanders has struggled more with grinding out extra running yardage this season, totaling 1.81 yards-after-contact vs a 3.02 rate last season.

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