Miles Sanders Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Miles Sanders Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -244 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -260.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 51.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Miles Sanders has rushed for 0.73 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (94th percentile).

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have run for the least TDs in football (0.27 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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