Miles Sanders Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Miles Sanders Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Panthers are enormous underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
With a high 9.4% Target Share (76th percentile) this year, Miles Sanders ranks among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the NFL.
Miles Sanders's 83.9% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a significant gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 71.1% mark.
The Saints linebackers profile as the 10th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to pass on 53.9% of their plays: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Panthers to call the 9th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Carolina Panthers this year (only 54.0 per game on average).

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