Miles Sanders Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 1:11 PM EST

Analysis

Miles Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their typical game plan.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
Miles Sanders has totaled a whopping 1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Miles Sanders's 83.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last season's 71.1% figure.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Carolina Panthers.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are expected by our trusted projection set to call just 61.3 total plays in this contest: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) since the start of last season.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Panthers grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
Miles Sanders's 2.8 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a significant regression in his receiving ability over last year's 4.0 figure.