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Miles Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-135/+105).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +105.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -4-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a staggering 59.8 per game on average).The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.In regards to air yards, Miles Sanders grades out in the lofty 87th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 2.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).The Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (84.3%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (84.3%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Right now, the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (54.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Panthers.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Panthers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.Miles Sanders is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing a measly 69.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile.With a poor 3.9 adjusted yards per target (4th percentile) since the start of last season, Miles Sanders has been as one of the worst pass-game running backs in the league.
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