Miles Sanders Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Miles Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Panthers to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.5 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.8 per game) this year.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
Miles Sanders's 69.2% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a meaningful regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 74.8% mark.
Miles Sanders is positioned as one of the worst running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging just 5.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
The Saints defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 22.0) vs. RBs this year.