Miles Sanders Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Miles Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offensive scheme to tilt 7.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
When talking about air yards, Miles Sanders ranks in the lofty 79th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a striking 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Panthers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
Miles Sanders's 70.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a material diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 74.8% mark.
With a bad 5.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (24th percentile) this year, Miles Sanders stands as one of the best pass-game running backs in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus RBs this year, yielding 5.21 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.