Miles Sanders Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Miles Sanders Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 42.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to accrue 12.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Miles Sanders has been given 50.6% of his team's carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the 26th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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