Mike Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mike Williams

NFL · Player Props

Mike Williams

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to total 9.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to be much more involved in his team's passing offense this week (24.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.1% in games he has played).
Mike Williams has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 4.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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