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Mike Williams

Mike Williams Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 6

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Mike Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+151/-206).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -206.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (25.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played).

Mike Williams has compiled far more air yards this year (100.0 per game) than he did last year (91.0 per game).

Mike Williams's 61.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 52.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.8%).

The Denver Broncos defense has given up the least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.20 per game this year.

The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

More Mike Williams Player Props

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