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Mike Williams

Mike Williams Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Mike Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (25.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).
  • Mike Williams has accrued far more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (91.0 per game).
  • Mike Williams's 52.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for wideouts.
  • Mike Williams ranks in the 91st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).
  • The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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