Mike Williams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mike Williams

NFL · Player Props

Mike Williams

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (25.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).
Mike Williams has accrued far more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (91.0 per game).
Mike Williams's 52.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for wideouts.
Mike Williams ranks in the 91st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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