Mike Williams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mike Williams

NFL · Player Props

Mike Williams

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Williams to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (23.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).
Mike Williams has posted a monstrous 91.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
Mike Williams's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.0% to 55.9%.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 10th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.

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