Mike Williams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mike Williams

NFL · Player Props

Mike Williams

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+124/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Williams has notched a monstrous 89.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among WRs.
Mike Williams's 52.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 85th percentile for wideouts.
Mike Williams's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 61.0% to 71.0%.
Mike Williams ranks in the 94th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.56 per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (73.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (73.8%).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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