Mike White TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Mike White

NFL · Player Props

Mike White

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike White TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+163/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
Mike White has attempted 36.7 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among QBs.
Mike White has been among the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 1.33 per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Mike White's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.7% to 64.1%.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 6th-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.17 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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