Mike White Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Mike White

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike White Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Mike White to earn 1.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Mike White has averaged a measly 1.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (5th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.