Mike Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Mike Thomas

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Nov 1, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+139/-188).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -188.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 67.3% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Thomas to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.8% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in the league (69.1%) vs. wideouts this year (69.1%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
Mike Thomas has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.7 receptions per game while ranking in the 9th percentile among wideouts.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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