Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Mike Gesicki is anticipated by the model to place in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets.
Mike Gesicki's 23.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the league: 76th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

A passing game script is implied by the Bengals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a mere 53.0 per game on average).
As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Philadelphia's unit has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in football.

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