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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Carolina Panthers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+142/-188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

This week, Mike Gesicki is anticipated by the predictive model to position himself in the 85th percentile among tight ends with 4.8 targets.

Mike Gesicki's 78.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial boost in his receiving talent over last season's 68.4% mark.

Since the start of last season, the anemic Panthers pass defense has allowed a staggering 76.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in the league.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Carolina's safety corps has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 5 points.

Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 27.26 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week.

The Bengals have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 56.4 plays per game.

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.1 per game) since the start of last season.

The predictive model expects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack in this week's contest (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).

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