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Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+104).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +104.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.The Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.The predictive model expects Mike Gesicki to earn 4.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.Mike Gesicki has been one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in just 69.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 21st percentile.Since the start of last season, the tough Commanders defense has yielded a paltry 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
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