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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.7% of their opportunities: the greatest rate on the slate this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

The projections expect Mike Gesicki to notch 3.9 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among TEs.

Mike Gesicki's 26.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 18.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.

At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bengals grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.4%) vs. TEs this year (70.4%).

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Denver's safety corps has been excellent this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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