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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 138.5 plays on offense called: the highest number on the slate this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop.

The predictive model expects Mike Gesicki to garner 4.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs.

Mike Gesicki's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 18.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 10 points.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 32.3 per game) this year.

When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.

The Browns pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.8%) to tight ends this year (68.8%).

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