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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.

In this contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the model to find himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.5 targets.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, New England's unit has been atrocious last year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

With a bad 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (21st percentile) last year, Mike Gesicki rates as one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to TEs.

Last year, the imposing New England Patriots defense has allowed a paltry 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 8th-best rate in the NFL.

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