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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.

The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Mike Gesicki's 77.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a an impressive gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 66.3% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Mike Gesicki has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, playing on 54.3% of snaps compared to just 42.6% last season.

The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.4%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (57.4%).

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