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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-245/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a massive 14.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

At just 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense has been the 9th-quickest paced in football (adjusted for context) this year.

The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to earn 4.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

Mike Gesicki's 70.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 66.3% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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