Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
This year, the porous Chargers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 80.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-worst rate in football.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
With a subpar 67.7% Adjusted Catch% (24th percentile) this year, Mike Gesicki rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.

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