Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
Mike Gesicki's 72.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a material progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 66.3% mark.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Mike Gesicki's 54.4% Snap% this season signifies a substantial gain in his offensive workload over last season's 42.6% figure.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Giants pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.3%) versus TEs this year (62.3%).

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