Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.4%.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (78.9%) versus TEs this year (78.9%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this year (60.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Mike Gesicki's receiving performance has worsened this year, accumulating just 2.7 yards per game vs 4.2 last year.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.

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