Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 2:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
Mike Gesicki's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 90.6%.
The New York Jets safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (51.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).

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