Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +310 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.
Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (55.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.3%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
Mike Gesicki's receiving performance has diminished this year, averaging a measly 1.9 yards per game vs 4.2 last year.

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