Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (79.7%) versus tight ends this year (79.7%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential target this season (55.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).

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