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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (56.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Mike Gesicki's play as a receiver has declined this season, totaling a mere 1.9 yards per game compared to 4.2 last season.

Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, catching just 65.6% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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