Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:36 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (56.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki's play as a receiver has declined this season, totaling a mere 1.9 yards per game compared to 4.2 last season.
Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, catching just 65.6% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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