Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-202/+148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -179 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -202.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential target this season (56.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.