Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Mike Gesicki's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.2% to 70.6%.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (59.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.3%).
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki's receiving talent has declined this year, totaling a measly 2.2 yards per game vs 4.2 last year.

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