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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-180).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Mike Gesicki's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.2% to 70.6%.

The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.

Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (59.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.3%).

The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Mike Gesicki's receiving talent has declined this year, totaling a measly 2.2 yards per game vs 4.2 last year.

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