Mike Gesicki Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+148/-198).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Gesicki has run a route on 78.7% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to total 4.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.