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Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.The Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.The predictive model expects Mike Gesicki to earn 4.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.Mike Gesicki has notched a monstrous 26.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.Mike Gesicki has been one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in just 69.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 21st percentile.Mike Gesicki has been one of the least efficient receivers in football among TEs, averaging a lowly 5.56 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.Since the start of last season, the imposing Washington Commanders defense has given up a paltry 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best in the league.
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