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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.2% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may fall-off.

Our trusted projections expect Mike Gesicki to total 4.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

Mike Gesicki has posted quite a few more air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).

Mike Gesicki's 31.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 18.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Bengals to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bengals this year (just 55.6 per game on average).

This year, the imposing Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.4 yards.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.

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