Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.32 seconds per play.
When it comes to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a massive 28.0 per game.
Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 66.3% to 78.1%.

Favors Under

When talking about pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
Mike Gesicki's 7.0 adjusted yards per target this year represents a significant decline in his receiving skills over last year's 8.4 mark.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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