Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
In regards to air yards, Mike Gesicki grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a massive 31.0 per game.
Mike Gesicki's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.3% to 75.6%.
Mike Gesicki's 4.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a a meaningful progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 3.1% rate.

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.1% pass rate.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a measly 7.12 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.39 rate last year.