Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has accrued a monstrous 36.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Mike Gesicki's 77.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a an impressive gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 66.3% figure.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
Mike Gesicki has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, playing on 54.3% of snaps compared to just 42.6% last season.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Mike Gesicki's receiving efficiency has worsened this season, compiling a measly 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.39 figure last season.

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