Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Mike Gesicki has notched a monstrous 31.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

Mike Gesicki has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, staying in the game for 52.9% of snaps vs just 42.6% last season.
The Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, conceding 5.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Cowboys safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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