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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a -6.5-point underdog this week.

This year, the anemic Denver Broncos defense has conceded a colossal 66.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the most in football.

This year, the weak Denver Broncos defense has given up the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a staggering 9.14 yards.

As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Denver's unit has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.5% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL has been the New England Patriots.

The projections expect the Patriots to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Mike Gesicki has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (30.0 per game).

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.

Mike Gesicki's 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a noteworthy regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 25.0 mark.

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