Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
Mike Gesicki has posted a monstrous 27.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among tight ends.
This year, the feeble Chargers defense has given up a monstrous 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Mike Gesicki's 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 25.0 rate.
With a subpar 67.7% Adjusted Catch% (24th percentile) this year, Mike Gesicki rates as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends.
Mike Gesicki's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, notching a measly 5.91 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.39 mark last season.
Mike Gesicki rates as one of the weakest tight ends in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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