Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:46 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Patriots rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mike Gesicki has run a route on 55.3% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki has accumulated a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching just 66.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 21st percentile.
Mike Gesicki has been among the worst tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 25th percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.9%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (67.9%).

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