Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to garner 3.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 75.1%.
Mike Gesicki's pass-game efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 9.38 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.85 rate last year.
Mike Gesicki's skills in generating extra yardage have improved this season, averaging 4.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 2.85 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Mike Gesicki has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

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