Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Mike Gesicki has notched a colossal 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki has been among the top TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 39.0 yards per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mike Gesicki's 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 42.4.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has been among the worst TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 6th percentile.